Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable
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This course will teach you how to do estimation calibration through Structured Expert Judgment to make your forecasts more reliable by calculating and analyzing calibration and information scores.
Managers and subject matter experts (SMEs) are faced with many challenges particularly in making reliable forecasts with minimal forecasting errors. In this course, Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable, you’ll learn to implement estimation calibration through the Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) method by calculating calibration and information scores. First, you’ll learn what a calibration score is, and how to calculate it. Next, you’ll discover what an information score is, how it’s different from the calibration score, and how to calculate it. Finally, you’ll learn how to analyze both calibration score and information score obtained from the calculation to evaluate the assessments made by experts. When you’re finished with this course, you’ll have the skills and knowledge of calculating calibration and information score under Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) which is needed to make your forecasts more reliable through estimation calibration.
Author Name: Wilvie Anora
Author Description:
She is the Co-founder as well as Strategy Lead of AtoANI (sustainable agriculture) and AtoANI BioPack (biodegradable packaging). She is passionate about Social Innovation and using it to contribute to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. With a Chemical Engineering and MBA Degree, her corporate experience in multinational companies involves working on various topics in the areas of Strategy, Digitalization, Innovation, Finance, Material Management, Quality Assurance, Program and Project Managem… more
Table of Contents
- Course Overview
2mins - Potential Problems with Forecasts
24mins - Calculating Calibration Scores
24mins - Applying Calibration Scores to the Learner’s Expertise
20mins - Analyzing Calibration Scores
28mins - Calculating Information Scores
37mins - Examining Pitfall of Estimating at 50% Probability
20mins
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